NOAA releases winter forecast: Warmer South, wetter North

 

NOAA Winter Weather Forecast 2024-2025: Overview and Analysis

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has released its seasonal outlook for the winter of 2024-2025, highlighting significant regional differences in temperature and precipitation across the United States. This forecast is particularly shaped by the presence of La Niña conditions, which influence the position of the jet stream and subsequently affect weather patterns across North America. La Niña, characterized by cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific, often results in colder, wetter conditions in some regions and warmer, drier conditions in others.

Understanding La Niña and Its Role

La Niña events have a significant impact on global weather patterns, and the 2024-2025 winter season is expected to be shaped by such a phenomenon. According to NOAA's projections, there is a roughly 70% chance that La Niña conditions will persist through the core winter months of December through February​

. La Niña typically shifts the Pacific jet stream northward, which alters the usual paths of storm systems and temperature distributions.

• Typical La Niña Patterns: During La Niña winters, colder air masses are often pushed into the northern United States, while the southern U.S. experiences milder and drier conditions. The Pacific Northwest and parts of the Great Lakes region can expect an increase in precipitation, including snow, while the southern tier of the country—especially the Southwest, Southeast, and Gulf Coast—may see reduced rainfall and warmer temperatures​
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Temperature Outlook: Regional Analysis

1. Pacific Northwest and Northern Tier States:

   • The 2024-2025 winter forecast suggests a high likelihood of colder-than-average conditions across the Pacific Northwest, extending into parts of the northern Rockies and the Great Plains​
     
     
     . These areas are expected to experience increased snowfall due to the colder temperatures and the trajectory of the northern jet stream, which is influenced by La Niña.
   • States like Washington, Oregon, Idaho, and Montana are likely to see significant snowfall events, particularly in the mountainous regions, as cold air interacts with moisture coming from the Pacific​
     . This could be beneficial for ski resorts in these regions, offering a strong early-season snowfall.

2. Midwest and Great Lakes:

   • The Midwest, including states like Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan, can expect a winter with colder temperatures and a mix of precipitation types​
     . Lake effect snow events are likely to be more frequent due to cold air moving across the warmer waters of the Great Lakes.
   • NOAA’s models suggest that areas around the Great Lakes will experience above-average precipitation, which translates into higher snowfall accumulations in regions like northern Michigan and upstate New York​
     . This will likely have impacts on transportation and energy demand in these areas.

3. Southwest and Southern Plains:

   • In contrast to the cooler northern regions, the southern United States, particularly the Southwest and the Southern Plains, is expected to experience above-average temperatures this winter​
     . States like Texas, New Mexico, and parts of Arizona may see warmer winter conditions, with a reduced risk of extreme cold spells.
   • The drier-than-normal outlook for these areas poses challenges for regions that have already been dealing with drought conditions. NOAA notes that drought persistence or intensification is likely in parts of Texas and the lower Mississippi Valley​
     . This could affect agricultural production and water availability in these states.

4. Southeast and Gulf Coast:

   • For much of the Southeast, including states like Florida, Georgia, and Alabama, NOAA anticipates warmer and drier conditions during the 2024-2025 winter​
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     . This is a typical pattern during La Niña events, where the southern jet stream is less active, reducing the chances of significant precipitation.
   • While warmer temperatures may reduce the likelihood of severe winter weather events like ice storms, the drier outlook could exacerbate drought conditions in some parts of the region, impacting agriculture and water resources
     

Precipitation Outlook: Wet North, Dry South

The winter forecast also points to notable regional differences in precipitation levels across the United States:

• Above-Average Precipitation for the Pacific Northwest and Great Lakes:

  • The Pacific Northwest, including coastal regions of Washington, Oregon, and northern California, is expected to see an increase in rainfall and snow, particularly in the mountain ranges​
    
    
    . This is due to the positioning of the jet stream, which is expected to channel more moisture into these areas.
  • Similarly, the Great Lakes region is anticipated to receive above-average snowfall, particularly in areas prone to lake effect snow. This includes parts of Ohio, Pennsylvania, and upstate New York, where cold air moving over the warm lake waters can generate significant snowfall
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• Drier Conditions in the Southwest and Southeast:

  • NOAA’s forecast suggests below-average precipitation across much of the southern U.S., from Southern California through Texas and into the Gulf Coast states​
    . This could mean fewer winter storms and less rainfall, contributing to drier soil conditions and potential challenges for agriculture.
  • While occasional storm systems may still reach these regions, the overall pattern is expected to favor drier conditions, reducing the likelihood of significant winter rain or snowfall events.

Impacts on Agriculture, Water Resources, and Energy

The NOAA winter outlook has important implications for agriculture, water management, and energy demand across the United States:

• Agricultural Impacts: In regions like the Southern Plains and the Southwest, drier and warmer conditions could stress winter wheat crops and reduce soil moisture levels, potentially impacting planting decisions for the spring. Conversely, the wetter conditions expected in the Midwest could provide beneficial moisture for winter crops but also present challenges related to snow cover and soil management​
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• Water Resource Management: Areas like the Colorado River Basin, which depend on snowpack in the Rockies for water supply, may see varied impacts depending on the precise snowfall patterns. While the Rockies may receive some precipitation, the broader drier outlook for the Southwest could continue to strain water resources in states like California, Arizona, and Nevada​
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• Energy Demand: Colder conditions in the northern states could lead to increased heating demand, impacting energy markets and utilities. States in the Midwest and Northeast may need to prepare for higher natural gas consumption, while warmer temperatures in the South could reduce heating needs, leading to lower seasonal energy demand​
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Preparing for a La Niña Winter: Safety and Planning

NOAA emphasizes the importance of preparing for potential winter weather challenges, including cold snaps, snowstorms, and variable precipitation patterns. The agency’s seasonal outlooks are crucial for aiding communities, businesses, and governments in planning for winter impacts:

• Public Safety: With the variability that La Niña can introduce, regions across the northern U.S. should be prepared for periods of intense cold and snow, while southern regions need to plan for extended dry periods. Communities in areas prone to snow and ice are advised to prepare for possible transportation disruptions and ensure emergency supplies are available​
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• Agricultural Planning: Farmers and agricultural planners should closely monitor regional forecasts, as weather patterns can significantly impact planting and harvest schedules. NOAA’s long-term data and predictions can help inform decisions about crop management and irrigation needs​
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• Water Management: States reliant on winter snowpack for water resources, such as those in the Colorado River Basin, need to monitor snowfall trends closely. NOAA’s forecasts and real-time snowpack monitoring can provide vital information for water allocation and reservoir management​
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Conclusion: Navigating the 2024-2025 Winter

NOAA's winter outlook for 2024-2025 suggests a season influenced heavily by La Niña, bringing a complex mix of colder, wetter conditions in the northern U.S. and warmer, drier weather in the South. As the jet stream adjusts to these La Niña conditions, regions across the country will experience varied impacts, from increased snowfall in the Pacific Northwest and Great Lakes to drought concerns in the Southwest. By utilizing NOAA's forecasts and preparing for the expected conditions, communities can better navigate the challenges and opportunities that this winter season may bring​